La apuesta de Pascal

114

Blaise Pascal, filósofo y matemático francés, desarrolló la primera máquina calculadora. Pocos años antes de morir, en 1662, se hizo cristiano y asceta y publicó su menos conocida “apuesta de Pascal”, en la que “demuestra” como es más rentable creer en Dios que no creer.

La apuesta de Pascal es un argumento utilizado en la discusión sobre la creencia en la existencia de Dios, basado en el supuesto de que la existencia de Dios es una cuestión de azar. El argumento plantea que, aunque no se conoce de modo seguro si Dios existe, lo racional es apostar que sí existe. “La razón es que, aun cuando la probabilidad de la existencia de Dios fuera extremadamente pequeña, tal pequeñez sería compensada por la gran ganancia que se obtendría (ir al cielo).” Básicamente, el argumento plantea cuatro escenarios:

  • Puedes creer en Dios; si existe, entonces irás al cielo.
  • Puedes creer en Dios; si no existe, entonces no ganarás nada.
  • Puedes no creer en Dios; si no existe, entonces tampoco ganarás nada.
  • Puedes no creer en Dios; si existe, entonces no irás al cielo.

La apuesta de Pascal fue expresada por el propio filósofo de la siguiente manera:

Si no creemos en Dios y existieses estaríamos condenados, si no existiese no ganaríamos ni perderíamos nada.
Si creemos en Dios y existiese ganaríamos el paraíso, si no existiese no ganaríamos ni perderíamos nada.

Con lo cual queda demostrado que es más rentable creer (ganamos o no) que no creer (perdemos o no).

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